Emsi Burning Glass publishes occupation separation counts using a combination of Emsi Burning Glass jobs data, separation rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and industry-based separations data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) program.
To illustrate how the process works, we can walk through an example using a fake county in which there are two industries and three occupations.
Calculate job decline between years. If change is negative, decline = change. If change is positive or 0, decline = 0:
Calculate the number of separations for each industry-occupation combination by multiplying the BLS’s separation rate for the occupation by the occupation’s employment:
Sum Emsi Burning Glass decline and BLS-based separations for each industry-occupation combination. This results in model separations for each county-industry-occupation combination:
Turn occupational Model Separations into a percentage of separations for each industry:
Multiply QWI industry separations figures by the percent model separations figures, breaking each industry’s separations out into separations by occupation:
Since the goal is occupation separations without regard to industry, separations for each occupation across all industries in the county are summed (e.g. all separations for O1, from all industries, are summed):
The end result is separations by occupation, particular to each area in the US.Why are Emsi Burning Glass Separations so High?Emsi Burning Glass‘s separation counts are significantly higher than separation counts based solely on the BLS’s Separation Rate. Separation counts could be calculated by simply taking the national replacement rate as published by the BLS for each occupation, and multiplying it by the job counts for that occupation.BLS Separations only take into account “Occupational Transfers” and “Labor Force Exits.” Occupational transfers are people who leave the job category (SOC) they had been working in and begin a job in a new job category. An example of this would be a Registered Nurse (SOC 29-1141) becoming a Pharmacy Technician (SOC 29-2052). Labor Force Exits are people who leave the labor force entirely, as in retirement.Excluded from BLS separation counts are job transfers within a job category, as in a Registered Nurse leaving a job at a hospital and instead working as an RN at a local physician’s office. This is neither an Occupational Transfer nor a Labor Force Exit, and is therefore not counted in the BLS’s separation rates. These types of job switches within a SOC are very prevalent, and so a Separations metric that includes them will be by definition much higher than a Separations metric that excludes them.The Separations numbers captured by the Census’s Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) dataset include separations due to labor force exits, occupational transfers, and normal job-switching (churn). It is a more robust measure of separations, and since its goal in Emsi software is to be a part of a churn/turnover metric, it is necessary to use this more robust measure of separations, which will necessarily be much higher than a separation metric calculated using only the BLS Separation rate.
Industry | Occupation | 2016 Jobs | 2017 Jobs | Decline |
---|---|---|---|---|
IA | O1 | 50 | 25 | 25 |
IA | O2 | 350 | 300 | 50 |
IA | O3 | 100 | 110 | 0 |
IB | O1 | 200 | 190 | 10 |
IB | O2 | 300 | 300 | 0 |
IB | O3 | 80 | 70 | 10 |
Industry | Occupation | 2016 Jobs | BLS Separation Rate | BLS-Based Separations |
IA | O1 | 50 | 0.08 | 4 |
IA | O2 | 350 | 0.06 | 21 |
IA | O3 | 100 | 0.11 | 11 |
IB | O1 | 200 | 0.08 | 16 |
IB | O2 | 300 | 0.06 | 18 |
IB | O3 | 80 | 0.11 | 9 |
Industry | Occupation | Emsi Burning Glass Decline | BLS-Based Separations | Model Separations |
IA | O1 | 25 | 4 | 29 |
IA | O2 | 50 | 21 | 71 |
IA | O3 | 0 | 11 | 11 |
IB | O1 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
IB | O2 | 0 | 18 | 18 |
IB | O3 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
Industry | Occupation | Model Separations | Total Industry Model Separations | Percent of Model Separations |
IA | O1 | 29 | 111 | 26% |
IA | O2 | 71 | 111 | 64% |
IA | O3 | 11 | 111 | 10% |
IB | O1 | 26 | 63 | 41% |
IB | O2 | 18 | 63 | 29% |
IB | O3 | 19 | 63 | 30% |
Industry | Occupation | QWI Separations | Percent of Model Separations | Occupation Separations |
IA | O1 | 75 | 26% | 20 |
IA | O2 | 75 | 64% | 48 |
IA | O3 | 75 | 10% | 7 |
IB | O1 | 175 | 41% | 72 |
IB | O2 | 175 | 29% | 50 |
IB | O3 | 175 | 30% | 52 |
Occupation | Final Emsi Burning Glass Occupation Separations | |||
O1 | 92 | |||
O2 | 98 | |||
O3 | 59 |
Let us know what specific questions we can help you with (we may even add your question to our knowledge base).
Let us know what specific questions we can help you with (we may even add your question to our knowledge base).