Does Emsi Burning Glass account for the COVID pandemic recession in employment projections?

Overview

Emsi Burning Glass provides projected employment values, by industry and occupation, for the next 10 years from the current year. These projections are built under the assumption that past trends continue unchanged into the future. We first project industry employment data, and then adjust the projection trends to data from the BLS Employment Projections program. We then calculate occupation projections by multiplying these projected industry values by projected regional staffing patterns.

It is clear that the recent pandemic-induced recession has had and will continue to have a large and diverse impact on industry and occupation employment. While neither Emsi Burning Glass nor the BLS have not changed projection methodologies to include assumptions about the changing economy in the wake of the recession, the BLS continues to evaluate the assumptions underlying their methodology.

No Changes to Emsi Burning Glass Projection Methodology

Emsi Burning Glass does not plan to change the methodology by which we calculate our employment projections to account for the recession, because doing so would require us to make certain assumptions that do not have much support in the data available to us. The approach we have historically taken has fared well with some dramatic shocks to the economy (hurricanes, recessions, etc). This is due partly to the robustness of using multiple linear regression lines, and partly due to adjusting to published BLS projections, which do take these economic shocks into account.

Possible Changes to BLS Projection Methodology

As of the publication of their 2020-2030 projections, the BLS had not yet modified their methodology due to the recession, but they had conducted a study identifying industries and occupations whose trajectories are subject to higher levels of uncertainty. The BLS plans to continue evaluating the methodological assumptions underlying their projections: “In an upcoming article slated for publication in fall 2021, BLS will provide a followup analysis comparing the alternate projections with the 2020–30 baseline projections.” If and when the BLS does modify their official methodology, Emsi Burning Glass will adjust to the new BLS methodologies.