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Expected Change

In shift share analysis, expected change is the amount of job growth or decline that we would expect to see for a particular regional industry based on the national growth effect and the industry (or occupation) mix effect. Job change beyond this level is “unexpected” and can therefore be attributed to the region’s unique competitive effect (see definition below).

To measure expected change, we simply add the two effects we previously calculated:

Industrial Mix Effect + National Growth Effect = Expected Change

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