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Why Don’t Emsi Projections Match BLS or State Projections?

If you use an Emsi product or service, chances are you’ve seen some of our labor market projections. We provide detailed job estimates, by industry and occupation, for each of the next 10 years from the current year. For a more thorough treatment of Emsi’s projection methodology, see this article.

Emsi projections will not match the BLS or any other individual state projections at the most detailed level. There are several reasons for the discrepancy:

1. Differences in Coverage
Emsi has broken out our labor market data into four different classes of worker that allow our clients to dig into specific elements of their economy. In most states, the first two classes of workers (QCEW Employees and Non-QCEW Employees) are most closely comparable to the industry projections from the published sources. We don’t expect our self-employment and proprietors projections to match BLS and state-level projections.

2. We Don’t Use BLS/State Occupation Projections (except for our Annual Job Openings estimates)
Our occupation projections are based off of our industry numbers with our projected, regionalized staffing pattern applied to the figures. As a result, the occupation projections will necessarily differ from BLS occupation numbers.

3. Differences in Methodology
Emsi uses a combination of BLS, state, and internal projection methods. This will naturally differ from the BLS and state projections alone.

4. Release Lag
Emsi projections are based on the most recent available data and published projections, but the BLS and states release only long-term projections on a two-year basis. Emsi’s internal projections are more heavily weighted as state/national projections age.

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Let us know what specific questions we can help you with (we may even add your question to our knowledge base).